Italy’s Political Upheaval and the Consequences of Inequality

Intereconomics - Political upheaval, with the dangerous rise of the far right – in Italy and Europe – is likely to be stabilised when politics and policies again turn their attention to...     

Pricing a rural development program: uncertainty,indifference, and protest behaviors

This article presents an econometric approach to modeling uncertainty, unwillingness to pay, and protest behavior in contingent valuation studies. For that purpose, a mixture model with sample selection is developed for a multiple‐bounded uncertainty elicitation format. The proposed theoretical framework is applied to evaluate the social welfare impact of implementing a sustainable rural development program. Results show that a “naive” analytical approach that excludes protesters from the analysis would result in significantly higher willingness to pay estimates for those individuals who favor the implementation of the program and agree to reveal their true reservation prices.     

Revising the European Central Bank’s fiscal rules to support growth and employment

Abstract

The paper presents a reform proposal for the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) whose purpose is to create a common set of risk-free assets for financial institutions operating in the euro area (EA), which is the necessary condition for having a single internal financial market. The proposal does not require the introduction of changes in the existing European Union treaties. The effects of this reform on the debt dynamic of EA member countries permit a revision of the existing fiscal rules. With the help of some simulations, it is shown that maintaining compliance with the European treaties, the reform of the ECB operations and revised fiscal rules would transform the current fiscal deflationary stance into a reflationary one. Some implications for aggregate demand and growth for the EA are briefly discussed.     

Shopping value,tourist satisfaction and positive word of mouth: the mediating role of souvenir shopping satisfaction

We propose new insights into key satisfaction outcomes for souvenir retailers, such as positive word-of-mouth recommendations, seeking deeper comprehension of overall tourist satisfaction determinants, by analysing the mediating role of tourist souvenir shopping satisfaction. We apply variance-based structural equation modelling by means of partial least squares to a sample of 408 tourists all of whom had purchased souvenirs. The results suggest that tourist shopping satisfaction partially mediates the relation between shopping value and positive word of mouth, while tourist shopping satisfaction completely mediates the relation between shopping value and overall tourist satisfaction. The results and their implications are then discussed to arrive at pertinent conclusions on tourist souvenir shopping satisfaction.     

Erosion mitigation in the Waikato District,New Zealand: economic implications for agriculture

Soil erosion, in its various forms, is caused or aggravated by agricultural activities. Mitigation of surface erosion comprises the construction of shelterbelts, fencing, riparian buffering, and stock reduction. Mitigation of mass‐movement erosion, in turn, takes the form of spaced planting of trees to maintain a persistent, healthy, and complete ground cover. In this article, we assess the economic implications to agriculture of the adoption of mitigation alternatives for erosion control in the Waikato District, New Zealand. The Waikato District presents a spatial pattern of erosion that affects profitability of dairy, and sheep and beef enterprises. We use the Universal Soil Loss Equation and the New Zealand Empirical Erosion Model to estimate erosion figures that are then fed into an economic‐focused, nonlinear, partial equilibrium mathematical programming model of New Zealand land use. Different scenarios are constructed for surface and mass‐movement soil erosion targets ranging from 0% to 50% below baseline levels. We find that achieving surface erosion targets is more expensive than mass‐movement targets, and results in different responses in regional‐level costs, land use, enterprise net revenue, and adoption of mitigation alternatives.     

Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.     

Handelsrestriktionen gegen Russland belasten sektoral und regional unterschiedlich stark

Wirtschaftsdienst - Die militärische Eskalation in der Ukraine sowie die aufgrund der Sanktionen einsetzenden Bremseffekte für die Kapital- und Handelsströme werden die deutsche...     

Heterogeneous Firms,Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle

Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non‐linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms relative to the bias from omitting zero trade flows. Furthermore, we show that including zero trade flows cannot solve the distance puzzle when using HMR. The HMR estimates are strongly correlated with the time pattern in freight costs reported by Hummels (2007).